Texans
Slate

Texans: 16% to win the AFC South, 30% to make the playoffs. Texans: 2% chance of the #1 pick, 15% of a top-five pick.

Texans 0–3, 2 games behind the Jaguars in the AFC South; 2 games behind the playoff line (2–1).

How: 10,000 seasons are played out from each remaining game's Elo win chance; ties are broken in the NFL's order through strength of schedule, then at random. Tested on 2016–2025 (docs/research/odds-nfl-test.md).

What's left

5 of 6 AFC South games left: at Titans, vs Jaguars, vs Colts, vs Jaguars, vs Titans.

Opp. Elo is the average current Elo of each team's remaining opponents; higher is harder.

AFC playoff picture

Division leaders
Bills (3–0); Chiefs or Raiders (3–0); Ravens or Bengals or Browns or Steelers (2–1); Jaguars (2–1).

Wild cards in
one of the Chiefs or Raiders (3–0).

The line
2 spots for 4 teams at 2–1: Broncos, three of the Ravens or Bengals or Browns or Steelers (2–1).

Next outside: Colts (1–2); Patriots (1–2); Jets (1–2); Texans (0–3); Chargers (0–3); Dolphins (0–3).

NFC playoff picture

Division leaders
Vikings (3–0); 49ers (3–0); Giants or Eagles (2–1); Falcons or Panthers or Saints (1–2).

The line
3 spots for 4 teams at 2–1: Bears, Lions, Seahawks, one of the Giants or Eagles (2–1).

Next outside: Cardinals (1–2); Cowboys (1–2); Packers (1–2); Rams (1–2); Commanders (1–2); Buccaneers (0–3).

Five teams at 0–3; strength of schedule breaks the tie, the easiest schedule picking first: Texans 24–27, Buccaneers 24–27, Titans 26–25, Chargers 30–21, Dolphins 32–19.

#1 and Top 5 are each team's chance of that pick in the same simulated seasons; the order before any trade.

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West