Schedule · Texans Slate

2026 schedule

Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13Home · ReliantL 31–36

Matched the play: it says Bills by about 4, and they won by 5. The Bills' offense was more explosive; the Texans were more consistent.

How the game swung: The Texans were as high as 74% and lost.

Q4 01:41 · 3rd & 11 · Texans 50% → 17%
(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 00:16 · 3rd & 18 · Texans 32% → 2%
(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
Q4 00:25 · 1st & 9 · Texans 55% → 34%
(:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).

Win chance from nflverse's model, before each play. The biggest swings are listed, biggest first.

Unit	EPA/play	Success
Texans offense	+0.07	47%
Bills offense	+0.25	40%

EPA per play is expected points added per snap; success is the share of snaps with positive EPA. The play's margin includes 2.4 points of home field.

Texans passing: C.J. Stroud 26/38, 274 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Texans rushing: David Montgomery 20 for 60, 2 TD; Woody Marks 9 for 42; C.J. Stroud 2 for 15
Texans receiving: Nico Collins 7/10 for 75, 1 TD; Jaylin Noel 2/2 for 53; Dalton Schultz 4/8 for 35
Bills passing: Josh Allen 20/29, 334 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Bills rushing: James Cook 13 for 57; Josh Allen 6 for 23, 2 TD; Frank Gore Jr. 1 for 3
Bills receiving: Dalton Kincaid 5/6 for 130; DJ Moore 5/8 for 100, 1 TD; Khalil Shakir 4/6 for 50

Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20Home · ReliantL 6–20

Matched the play: it says Bengals by about 12, and they won by 14.

How the game swung: The Texans were as high as 70% and lost.

Q2 04:21 · 3rd & 4 · Texans 56% → 45%
(4:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to HOU 32 for 23 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). ** Injury Update: CIN-71-A.Mims has returned to the game.
Q2 06:58 · 4th & 1 · Texans 67% → 57%
(6:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
Q2 03:37 · 1st & 10 · Texans 45% → 36%
(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Win chance from nflverse's model, before each play. The biggest swings are listed, biggest first.

Unit	EPA/play	Success
Texans offense	−0.25	32%
Bengals offense	−0.09	31%

EPA per play is expected points added per snap; success is the share of snaps with positive EPA. The play's margin includes 2.4 points of home field.

Texans passing: C.J. Stroud 30/55, 353 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Texans rushing: C.J. Stroud 3 for 29; Jaylin Noel 1 for 13; David Montgomery 6 for 10
Texans receiving: Dalton Schultz 12/14 for 140; Kayshon Boutte 3/5 for 37; Xavier Hutchinson 3/9 for 37
Bengals passing: Joe Burrow 20/31, 207 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Bengals rushing: Chase Brown 20 for 80; Samaje Perine 2 for 6; Joe Burrow 1 for -1
Bengals receiving: Tee Higgins 5/10 for 95; Ja'Marr Chase 7/9 for 75, 2 TD; Samaje Perine 1/1 for 16

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27L 17–19

Close game by the play, too: it says Texans by about 1. A 2-point loss is within the normal range.

How the game swung: The Texans were as high as 54% and lost.

Q4 00:21 · 4th & 1 · Texans 54% → 18%
(:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 00:01 · 2nd & 10 · Texans 26% → 0%
(:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right.
Q1 11:28 · 1st & 10 · Texans 35% → 51%
(11:28) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at IND 42. 51-W.Anderson to IND 40 for 2 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox). FUMBLES (81-M.Alie-Cox), recovered by HOU-3-K.Lassiter at IND 40.

Win chance from nflverse's model, before each play. The biggest swings are listed, biggest first.

Unit	EPA/play	Success
Texans offense	−0.09	41%
Colts offense	−0.11	41%

EPA per play is expected points added per snap; success is the share of snaps with positive EPA. The play's margin includes 2.4 points of home field.

Texans passing: C.J. Stroud 16/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
Texans rushing: David Montgomery 11 for 33; Woody Marks 5 for 15, 1 TD; C.J. Stroud 2 for 10
Texans receiving: Xavier Hutchinson 3/6 for 51; Dalton Schultz 3/3 for 30; Kayshon Boutte 2/2 for 21
Colts passing: Daniel Jones 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Colts rushing: Jonathan Taylor 23 for 68; Seth McGowan 4 for 14; Daniel Jones 3 for 5
Colts receiving: Josh Downs 5/11 for 77; Keenan Allen 6/9 for 63, 1 TD; Tyler Warren 9/10 for 55